Voters' wrath? Policy change and government popularity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Arndt, Christoph; Jensen, Carsten; Wenzelburger, Georg
• 署名单位: University of Reading; Aarhus University; University of Kaiserslautern
• 刊物名称: GOVERNANCE-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLICY ADMINISTRATION AND INSTITUTIONS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0952-1895
• DOI: 10.1111/gove.12483
• 发表日期: 2021
• 关键词: Elections; perceptions; electorate; STATES

摘要

Recent research suggests that voters are bad at responding in a meaningful way to policy events when deciding for whom to vote. Voters rely on so-called blind retrospection, punishing governments for events outside politicians' control. However, another core aspect of the blind retrospection perspective has not been put to the test: are voters unable to respond to policy decisions that clearly are under the politicians' control? We construct a unique large-N dataset on legislative changes in German old age pensions and unemployment protection to see if cutbacks and expansions lead to lower/higher support for the government. Our data are exceptionally fine-grained and allow us to track the policy-vote link for 416 months from 1977 to 2013 with a total of 329,167 respondents. We find substantial support for the notion that voters react in a meaningful way to policy changes, but also that they can be distracted by high-profile, extreme events.