When Nature Strikes: Which Regimes Exploit Natural Disasters for Fiscal Expansion?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jensen, Mads Dagnis; Wang, Suen
• 署名单位: Copenhagen Business School; Aalborg University
• 刊物名称: GOVERNANCE-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF POLICY ADMINISTRATION AND INSTITUTIONS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0952-1895
• DOI: 10.1111/gove.70060
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: politics; DEMOCRACY; survival

摘要

This study examines how different types of regimes use performance-based legitimation after severe natural disasters. While prior research has evaluated emergency relief, broader fiscal responses remain understudied. Drawing on legitimation theory, we argue that all regimes seek to secure legitimacy, but hybrid regimes are more likely to expand public spending to ensure their political survival. Analyzing data from 166 countries from 1960 to 2018, we find significant post-disaster fiscal expansion in hybrid regimes (particularly those with weaker opposition and higher fiscal capacity), but not democracies or autocracies. We investigate three case studies that largely support these findings: the 1985 Algarrobo earthquake (Chile under autocracy), the 1974 Hurricane Fifi-Orlene (Honduras under a hybrid regime), and the 1999 & Idot;zmit earthquake (Turkey during democracy).