被撤回的出版物: An assessment of the relation between analysts' earnings forecast accuracy, motivational incentives and cognitive information search strategy (Retracted article. See vol. 90, pg. 1717, 2015)

• 成果类型: Article; Retracted Publication
• 署名作者: Hunton, JE; McEwen, RA
• 署名单位: Virginia Commonwealth University
• 刊物名称: ACCOUNTING REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0001-4826
• 发表日期: 1997
• 页码: 497-515
• 关键词: decisions

摘要

Prior research indicates that analysts' forecasts of earnings tend to be optimistic. Analysts' optimism may be attributed to experience, cognitive information search strategies, motivational incentives or some combination thereof. In this study, we conduct an experiment that uses a computerized eye-movement retinal imaging system to capture the cognitive search strategy of 60 professional financial analysts. We find that, within the experiment, more accurate analysts employ a directive information search strategy, whereas less accurate analysts employ a sequential search strategy. Experimental results also indicate that motivational incentives intensify the analysts' tendency to provide optimistic earnings forecasts. We also conduct an examination of ?he analysts' predictive accuracy outside the experimental setting. We find a significant relation between historical accuracy and the analysts' cognitive search strategy observed in the experiment. Post-experiment survey results provide insight into the linkage between specific accounting information used by the analysts and the accuracy of their forecasts.