The contribution of fundamental analysis after a currency devaluation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Swanson, EP; Rees, L
• 署名单位: Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; Universidad Americas Puebla (UDLAP)
• 刊物名称: ACCOUNTING REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0001-4826
• DOI: 10.2308/accr.2003.78.3.875
• 发表日期: 2003
• 页码: 875-902
• 关键词: returns; earnings; prices

摘要

For a sample of companies traded on the Mexican Bolsa, fundamental analysis is used to investigate the value of financial statement information to investors after the December 1994 currency devaluation. Associations with contemporary returns show that earnings in the year of the devaluation lose value relevance, but fundamental signals, which incorporate the more detailed accounting information provided in financial statements, retain considerable explanatory power (13 2 is 25 percent). After the devaluation, fundamental signals based on changes in selling and administrative expenses and changes in gross margin are significant in several analyses, including predictions of future earnings, analysts' forecast revisions, and analysts' forecast errors. Because analysts underutilize those signals, an opportunity exists after the devaluation for a substantial profit from a zero investment trading strategy.