Meeting Individual Analyst Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kirk, Marcus P.; Reppenhagen, David A.; Tucker, Jennifer Wu
• 署名单位: State University System of Florida; University of Florida
• 刊物名称: ACCOUNTING REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0001-4826
• DOI: 10.2308/accr-50828
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 2203-2231
• 关键词: security analysts; EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS; FORECAST REVISIONS; ACCOUNTING EARNINGS; stock returns; performance; accuracy; incentives; selection; rewards

摘要

The expectations management literature has so far focused on firms meeting the analyst consensus forecast-the expectations of analysts as a group-at earnings announcements. In this study we argue that investors may use individual analyst forecasts as additional benchmarks in evaluating reported earnings because the consensus forecast underutilizes private information contained in individual analyst forecasts. We predict that measures reflecting such private information have incremental explanatory power over the consensus forecast for the market's reaction to earnings news. We find results consistent with this prediction by examining two measures: (1) the percentage of individual forecasts met and (2) meeting the key analyst forecast. We extend the literature by documenting the role of individual analyst forecasts in investors' evaluations of reported earnings.