Do Analysts Say Anything About Earnings Without Revising Their Earnings Forecasts?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Berger, Philip G.; Ham, Charles G.; Kaplan, Zachary R.
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Washington University (WUSTL)
• 刊物名称: ACCOUNTING REVIEW
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0001-4826
• DOI: 10.2308/accr-52164
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 29-52
• 关键词: cross-section; INFORMATION; underreaction; management; investor; PRIVATE

摘要

Analysts are selective about which forecasts they update and, thus, convey information about current quarter earnings even when not revising the current quarter earnings (CQE) forecast. We find that (1) textual statements, (2) share price target revisions, and (3) future quarter earnings forecast revisions all predict error in the CQE forecast. We document several reasons analysts sometimes omit information from the CQE forecast: to facilitate beatable forecasts by suppressing positive news from the CQE forecast, to herd toward the consensus, and to avoid small forecast revisions. We also show that omitting information from CQE forecasts leads to lower forecast dispersion and predictable returns at the earnings announcement.