Bankruptcy prediction: the case of Japanese listed companies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Xu, Ming; Zhang, Chu
• 署名单位: Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Hong Kong University of Science & Technology
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-008-9080-5
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 534-558
• 关键词: FINANCIAL RATIOS; RISK; distress; COSTS

摘要

This paper investigates if bankruptcy of Japanese listed companies can be predicted using data from 1992 to 2005. We find that the traditional measures, such as Altman's (J Finance 23:589-609, 1968) Z-score, Ohlson's (J Accounting Res 18:109-131, 1980) O-score and the option pricing theory-based distance-to-default, previously developed for the U.S. market, are also individually useful for the Japanese market. Moreover, the predictive power is substantially enhanced when these measures are combined. Based on the unique Japanese institutional features of main banks and business groups (known as Keiretsu), we construct a new measure that incorporates bank dependence and Keiretsu dependence. The new measure further improves the ability to predict bankruptcy of Japanese listed companies.