Confidence and trading aggressiveness of na⟨ve investors: effects of information quantity and consistency

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Smith, Steven D.
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-009-9106-7
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 295-316
• 关键词: ACCURACY; JUDGMENT; overconfidence; uncertainty

摘要

Advances in technology, as well as regulatory and legislative actions, have led to an increase in the quantity of information available to the public. This paper experimentally examines the effects of information quantity and consistency (or directional agreement) on the judgments and trading behavior of na < ve investors, holding constant the quality (or predictive value) of information. In my experiment, investors receive accounting signals and make predictions and trading decisions for 24 separate firms. I find that increasing the quantity and consistency of information leads na < ve investors to show greater judgment confidence and trading aggressiveness. Increased quantity reduces investors' expected wealth in laboratory markets, while the effect of consistency on expected wealth depends on the relationship between the low- and high-quality signals investors receive. Results highlight possible unintended consequences of increased disclosure and suggest directions for future experimental and archival research.