Analysts' accrual-related over-optimism: do analyst characteristics play a role?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Drake, Michael S.; Myers, Linda A.
• 署名单位: University of Arkansas System; University of Arkansas Fayetteville; University System of Ohio; Ohio State University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-009-9118-3
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 59-88
• 关键词: Cash flows; investor sophistication; CORPORATE DISCLOSURE; FORECAST REVISIONS; capital-markets; stock-prices; REG FD; earnings; INFORMATION; performance

摘要

Bradshaw et al. (J Acc Res 39:45-74, 2001) find that analyst forecast over-optimism is greater for firms with high accruals. This accrual-related over-optimism is generally interpreted as evidence that analyst forecasts do not fully incorporate predictable earnings reversals associated with high accruals. We investigate whether analyst experience, access to resources (brokerage size), and portfolio complexity moderate the relation between over-optimistic forecasts and high accruals. We demonstrate the robustness of accrual-related over-optimism to controls for cash flow and prior forecast errors. We find that accrual-related over-optimism is lower for analysts with greater general experience and for analysts following fewer firms but find only limited evidence of lower accrual-related over-optimism for analysts from larger brokerages and for analysts following fewer industries.