Owner liability and financial reporting information as predictors of firm default in bank loans

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bhimani, Alnoor; Gulamhussen, Mohamed Azzim; Lopes, Samuel da Rocha
• 署名单位: University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Instituto Universitario de Lisboa
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-013-9269-0
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 769-804
• 关键词: ORGANIZATIONAL COMPLEXITY; distress; bankruptcy; credit; ratios; MARKET; RISK; probability; ability; MODEL

摘要

We examine the effects of owner liability and non-accounting and financial accounting information on the probability of default as defined in Basel II in bank loan contracted by non listed firms. We model default as a function of owner liability and accounting and non-accounting information of non-listed firms, drawing on 43,117 annual accounts of 16,029 firms over a 7-year period. Our estimations based on mixed logistic regressions with random parameters show that the predicted default probability of full-liability firms is 0.72 times that of limited liability firms. The likelihood ratio test for omitted variables confirms the additional predictive ability of liability status over and above other non-accounting and financial accounting information. A Heckman self-selection model does not indicate sampling bias. The particular definition of default used in the study enables the findings to be generalizable across other institutional contexts.