Anticipation of management forecasts and analysts' private information search

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Altschuler, Dora; Chen, Gary; Zhou, Jie
• 署名单位: Loyola University Chicago; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; National University of Singapore
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-014-9314-7
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 803-838
• 关键词: earnings forecast; CORPORATE DISCLOSURE; accuracy; determinants; announcement; performance; incentives; ability; models

摘要

We examine how analysts' anticipation of a management forecast affects their search for private information. Analysts are likely to acquire more private information because of the potential gains from trading on that information before a publicly disclosed management forecast. However, this anticipation may also decrease analysts' efforts, because the information in a management forecast could substitute for costly private information. We predict that higher costs (benefits) of private information acquisition are associated with decreased (increased) private information reflected in analysts' forecasts when a management forecast is anticipated. Consistent with our predictions, we find that analysts acquire less private information before an anticipated forecast when earnings are more volatile and that they acquire more private information when the management forecast date is highly predictable and when the forecast is expected to be very accurate. We also find that star analysts acquire more private information before an anticipated forecast.