Do going concern opinions provide incremental information to predict corporate defaults?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gutierrez, Elizabeth; Krupa, Jake; Minutti-Meza, Miguel; Vulcheva, Maria
• 署名单位: Universidad de Chile; University of Miami; State University System of Florida; Florida International University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-020-09544-x
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1344-1381
• 关键词: operating characteristic curves; FINANCIAL RATIOS; auditor independence; disclosure; association; decisions; areas; RISK

摘要

Investors, regulators, and academics question the usefulness of going concern opinions (GCOs). We assess whether GCOs provide incremental information, relative to other predictors of corporate default. Our measure of incremental information is the additional predictive power that GCOs give to a default model. Using data from 1996 to 2015, initially we find no difference in predictive power between GCOs alone and a default model that includes financial ratios. However, there is an imperfect overlap between GCOs and other predictors. We show that GCOs increase the predictive power of several models that include ratios, market variables, probability of default estimates, and credit ratings. Using a model that includes ratios and market variables, GCOs increase the number of predicted defaults by 4.4%, without increasing Type II errors. Our findings suggest that GCOs summarize a complex set of conditions not captured by other predictors of default.