Negative accounting earnings and gross domestic product

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gaertner, Fabio B.; Kausar, Asad; Steele, Logan B.
• 署名单位: University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison; American University; Oregon State University
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-020-09536-x
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 1382-1409
• 关键词: asymmetric timeliness; conditional conservatism; INFORMATION; aggregate; externalities; investments; Suppliers; DYNAMICS; ECONOMY; macro

摘要

Konchitchki and PatatoukasJournal of Accounting and Economics57 (1-2), 76-88, (2014a) show that aggregate accounting earnings growth predicts future nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth and that professional macro forecasters do not fully incorporate the information contained in aggregate accounting earnings. Based on results from prior literature, which find that accounting earnings reflect bad economic news in a timelier manner than good news, we condition Konchitchki and Patatoukas's GDP growth forecast model on the sign of earnings changes. We show that negative changes in aggregate earnings predict future GDP growth while positive changes in earnings do not. Furthermore, we show that professional macro forecasters underreact to the information contained in negative changes in aggregate earnings about future GDP growth. Additional tests suggest our findings are a result of conservative accruals in earnings.