When attention is away, analysts misplay: distraction and analyst forecast performance

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bourveau, Thomas; Garel, Alexandre; Joos, Peter; Petit-Romec, Arthur
• 署名单位: Columbia University; Audencia; INSEAD Business School
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ACCOUNTING STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1380-6653
• DOI: 10.1007/s11142-022-09733-w
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 916-958
• 关键词: EARNINGS FORECASTS; career concerns; stock returns; management; expertise; proximity; liquidity; revisions; accuracy; BEHAVIOR

摘要

We construct a distraction measure based on extreme industry returns to gauge whether analysts' attention is away from certain stocks under coverage. We find that temporarily distracted analysts make less accurate forecasts, revise forecasts less frequently, and publish less informative forecast revisions, relative to undistracted analysts. Further, at the firm level, analyst distraction carries real negative externalities by increasing information asymmetry for stocks that suffer from a larger extent of analyst distraction during a given quarter. Our findings thus augment our understanding of the determinants and effects of analyst effort allocation and broaden the literature on distraction and information spillover in financial markets.