Confirming management earnings forecasts, earnings uncertainty, and stock returns
成果类型：
Article
署名作者：
Clement, M; Frankel, R; Miller, J
署名单位：
University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Notre Dame
刊物名称：
JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH
ISSN/ISSBN：
0021-8456
DOI：
10.1111/1475-679X.00119
发表日期：
2003
页码：
653-679
关键词：
摘要：
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This study provides evidence that these voluntary disclosures affect stock prices and the dispersion of analyst expectations. Specifically, we find that the market's reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive, indicating that benefits accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts. In addition, although we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts (a proxy for earnings expectations) around the confirming forecast date, evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion (a proxy for earnings uncertainty). Finally, we document a positive association between the reduction of dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response. Overall, the evidence suggests that confirming forecasts reduce uncertainty about future earnings and that investors price this reduction of uncertainty.
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