Inside the Black Box of Sell-Side Financial Analysts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brown, Lawrence D.; Call, Andrew C.; Clement, Michael B.; Sharp, Nathan Y.
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Temple University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0021-8456
• DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12067
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1-47
• 关键词: EARNINGS FORECASTS; stock recommendations; management; accuracy; INFORMATION; investors; QUALITY; profitability; COMPENSATION; revisions

摘要

Our objective is to penetrate the black box of sell-side financial analysts by providing new insights into the inputs analysts use and the incentives they face. We survey 365 analysts and conduct 18 follow-up interviews covering a wide range of topics, including the inputs to analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations, the value of their industry knowledge, the determinants of their compensation, the career benefits of Institutional Investor All-Star status, and the factors they consider indicative of high-quality earnings. One important finding is that private communication with management is a more useful input to analysts' earnings forecasts and stock recommendations than their own primary research, recent earnings performance, and recent 10-K and 10-Q reports. Another notable finding is that issuing earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that are well below the consensus often leads to an increase in analysts' credibility with their investing clients. We conduct cross-sectional analyses that highlight the impact of analyst and brokerage characteristics on analysts' inputs and incentives. Our findings are relevant to investors, managers, analysts, and academic researchers.