The Reluctant Analyst

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bernhardt, Dan; Wan, Chi; Xiao, Zhijie
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Warwick; University of Massachusetts System; University of Massachusetts Boston; Boston College
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0021-8456
• DOI: 10.1111/1475-679X.12120
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 987-1040
• 关键词: CONFLICTS-OF-INTEREST; recommendations; INVESTMENT; inference; Forecast; momentum; models; IMPACT

摘要

We estimate the dynamics of recommendations by financial analysts, uncovering the determinants of inertia in their recommendations. We provide overwhelming evidence that analysts revise recommendations reluctantly, introducing frictions to avoid frequent revisions. More generally, we characterize the sources underlying the infrequent revisions that analysts make. Publicly available data matter far less for explaining recommendation dynamics than do the recommendation frictions and the long-lived information that analysts acquire but the econometrician does not observe. Estimates suggest that analysts structure recommendations strategically to generate a profitable order flow from retail traders. We provide extensive evidence that our model describes how investors believe analysts make recommendations, and that investors value private information revealed by analysts' recommendations.