Endogenous overconfidence in managerial forecasts

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hilary, Gilles; Hsu, Charles
• 署名单位: Hong Kong University of Science & Technology; INSEAD Business School
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0165-4101
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2011.01.002
• 发表日期: 2011
• 关键词: investor psychology; INFORMATION; cascades; analysts; signals; MARKET; RULE

摘要

We examine whether attribution bias leads managers who have experienced short-term forecasting success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings. Importantly, this form of overconfidence is endogenous and dynamic. We also examine the effect of this cognitive bias on the managerial credibility. Consistent with the existence of dynamic overconfidence, managers who have predicted earnings accurately in the previous four quarters are less accurate in their subsequent earnings predictions. These managers also display greater divergence from the analyst consensus and are more precise. Lastly, investors and analysts react less strongly to forecasts issued by overconfident managers. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.