Accounting earnings and gross domestic product

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Konchitchki, Yaniv; Patatoukas, Panos N.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF ACCOUNTING & ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0165-4101
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jacceco.2013.10.001
• 发表日期: 2014
• 关键词: STOCK RETURNS; forecasts; heteroskedasticity; INFORMATION; MARKETS

摘要

We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Professional macro forecasters, however, do not fully incorporate the predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings data. As a result, future nominal GDP growth forecast errors are predictable based on accounting earnings data that are available to professional macro forecasters in real time. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.