CEO Overconfidence and Management Forecasting

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hribar, Paul; Yang, Holly
• 署名单位: University of Iowa; Singapore Management University
• 刊物名称: CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0823-9150
• DOI: 10.1111/1911-3846.12144
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 204-227
• 关键词: earnings; disclosure; association; volatility; MARKET; BIAS

摘要

This paper examines how overconfidence affects the properties of management forecasts. Using both the over-optimism and miscalibration dimensions of overconfidence to generate our predictions, we examine three research questions. First, we examine whether overconfidence increases the likelihood of issuing a forecast. Second, we examine whether overconfidence increases the amount of optimism in management forecasts. Third, we examine whether overconfidence increases the precision of the forecast. Using both options- and press-based measures to proxy for individual overconfidence, we find support for all three research questions.