Design and Use of Preference Markets for Evaluation of Early Stage Technologies

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chen, Li; Goes, Paulo; Marsden, James R.; Zhang, Zhongju
• 署名单位: University of Connecticut; University of Arizona
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEMS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0742-1222
• DOI: 10.2753/MIS0742-1222260302
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 45-70
• 关键词: rational-expectations; PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT; INFORMATION; systems; aggregation; selection

摘要

In the work presented here, we develop and apply preference markets in evaluating early stage technology. Partnering with a Fortune 5 company, we developed and implemented two internal preference markets (field experiments). In both cases, nonmonetary (play money) incentives were utilized, but one market provided additional nonmonetary (play money) incentives. Working with the partner company, our investigation started with seven emerging technologies and expanded to a total of 17 emerging technologies. Our results suggest that even a simple form of additional nonmonetary play money incentive yielded greater price convergence, increased spread across final market prices, and greater consistency with a costly expert panel that was set up by the partner company. Based on the outcomes of our analyses, the partner company is investing in developing extended applications of preference markets as a potentially scalable approach for dealing with its ongoing and expanding strategic identification of promising emerging technologies.