Abstract
The transition to a circular economy (CE) and green transition represents a pivotal shift in addressing global sustainability challenges. This introductory chapter delves into the fundamental principles of the circular economy and the green transition, elucidating their relevance to the Global South. The circular economy framework aims to redefine growth by decoupling economic activity from the consumption of finite resources, emphasizing restorative and regenerative approach. It contrasts sharply with the traditional linear economic model, which follows a ‘take-make-dispose’ pattern, leading to resource depletion and environmental degradation. Green transition encompasses a broader spectrum of environmental sustainability strategies, including renewable energy adoption, sustainable agriculture, waste management, and green industrial processes. It seeks to transform the socio-economic systems in a way that mitigates environmental impact, reduces carbon footprints, and fosters resilience against climate change. The chapter begins with a historical overview of the evolution of these concepts, tracing their roots from early environmental movements to contemporary policy frameworks. It then describes the fundamental principles underpinning the circular economy and explores how these principles can be operationalized in various sectors. Furthermore, the chapter discusses the relationship between green transition strategies and circular economy principles, highlighting synergies and potential conflicts. The chapter concludes with a discussion on policy implications, emphasizing the need for supportive regulatory frameworks, international cooperation and capacity building to foster a sustainable future. By presenting a holistic introduction to circular economy and green transition, this chapter sets the stage for deeper explorations in subsequent chapters, aiming to equip policymakers, researchers and practitioners with the knowledge and tools necessary to drive sustainable development in the Global South.
1 The Concept of Green Transition
The green transition is a development strategy that aims to create a sustainable and environmentally friendly economy, as well as to solve global problems related to climate change and the depletion of natural resources. The transition is carried out through the introduction of energy-efficient solutions, clean technologies, low-carbon materials and green financial instruments, etc. Most of the measures to reduce emissions are related to the energy sector, so it is often a question of switching to renewable energy sources. The Paris Agreement, which was reached as a result of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2015, has laid the groundwork for this transition (UNFCCC, 2015). It has set a goal for a more environmentally sustainable future. Since then, interest in green technologies and sustainable practices has grown significantly, with individuals, businesses and governments increasingly recognizing the importance of reducing environmental impact.
However, it would be inaccurate to claim that concerns about ecology did not exist in earlier times, as the first ecological studies emerged long before the Paris Agreement. During those years, the term ‘green transition’ had not yet been coined, but synonymous phrases such as ‘green economy’ and ‘sustainable development’ were used to convey similar concepts. These terms reflected the growing awareness of the need to align economic growth with environmental preservation, even in the absence of a unified framework like the one provided by the green transition today.
An example of the use of the term ‘sustainable development’ in the context of addressing environmental challenges can be found in the Brundtland report by the United Nations (UN, 1987). While the term ‘green transition’ was not used at the time, the concept incorporated many elements that later became central to the green transition. ‘Our Common Future’, another name for the report, introduced sustainable development as a global priority, linking environmental sustainability with economic and social progress. This report laid the groundwork for integrating ecological concerns into policymaking, inspiring international initiatives like the Rio Earth Summit. In contrast, the Paris Agreement of 2015 is a legally binding treaty focused on combating climate change, with specific targets for reducing emissions and limiting global warming (UNFCCC, 2015). While ‘Our Common Future’ provided a broad conceptual foundation, the Paris Agreement operationalized these principles, marking a shift from general advocacy to measurable climate action. Both documents are critical milestones in the evolution of global environmental policy, shaping the modern understanding of sustainability and the green transition.
Based on this seminal document, various studies on the green economy have contributed to further deepening the understanding of its role in the green transition. Early research in this area, such as the UNEP Green Economy Report (UNEP, 2011), has identified the economic opportunities offered by sustainable practices, including job creation in renewable energy sectors, improved resource efficiency and mitigation of climate risks. This study has reinforced the idea that the transition to a low-carbon economy is not only an environmental necessity, but also a factor of long-term economic sustainability.
It is crucial to acknowledge that environmental issues have been a focus not only for international organizations such as the United Nations but also for individual researchers and academic institutions. For example, scholars like Geels et al. (2017) have expanded the theoretical understanding of how societies transition to sustainable practices. Their ‘multi-level perspectives’ (MLP) framework underscores the interplay between niche innovations, socio-technical regimes, and broader societal changes (landscape-level dynamics) in driving the green transition. Another theory, called the Theory of Environmental Modernization (EMT), argues that societies can modernize in such a way as to reduce environmental impacts through market mechanisms and technological innovations.
Although the term ‘green transition’ has only recently come into use, its fundamental ideas, such as sustainable development and environmental economics, have been explored for many years. Early reports and studies laid the foundation for understanding the need to balance economic growth with environmental sustainability. The Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015) and subsequent research have further reinforced the green transition as a global priority, promoting the adoption of green technologies, renewable energy, and sustainable economic practices. As the green transition gains momentum, it becomes evident that it encompasses several essential elements necessary for achieving a more sustainable and robust global economy. These will be explored in more detail.
2 Core Components of the Green Transition
One of the central goals of the green transition is decarbonization, which involves significantly reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to mitigate climate change. GHG includes carbon dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous oxide (N2O) (Fig. 1).
Source authors based on https://ourworldindata.org/greenhouse-gas-emissions
The amount of carbon dioxide emissions is increasing every year (Fig. 2).
Source authors based on https://www.statista.com/statistics/1285502/annual-global-greenhouse-gas-emissions/
Despite the significant increase in carbon dioxide emissions in recent years, many scientists and environmental organizations have advocated for reducing them. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 is crucial to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2018) (Fig. 3).
Source authors based on https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions
In 2022, the European Union continued to lead global decarbonization efforts through the implementation of its Fit for 55 package, which aims to reduce GHG emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels (European Council, n.d.). This comprehensive plan includes measures such as tightening the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), introducing a Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) to prevent carbon leakage, and promoting the use of renewable energy. The European Climate Law, enacted in 2021, legally binds member states to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, making these interim targets critical steps towards long-term decarbonization goals (European Commission, n.d.a). The United States has also made substantial progress in its decarbonization efforts. In August 2022, the U.S. Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which includes significant provisions for climate action. The IRA allocates $369 billion for energy security and climate change programs over the next decade, marking the largest climate investment in U.S. history (UNCTAD, 2022). It is assumed that financial support is aimed at accelerating the transition to clean energy, improving energy efficiency and promoting the development of carbon capture and storage technologies.
Fossil fuel combustion stands as the dominant force behind the surge of CO2 emissions, playing a pivotal role in the acceleration of global warming. According to the British Petroleum, 84% of the world’s energy consumption in 2019 came from fossil fuels (BP, n.d.). These fuels directly emitted approximately 33 gigatons of CO2, and these statistics are not just numbers. They represent a serious and imminent reality.
The energy situation in 2023 has seen some shifts, but not as much as needed. Fossil fuel consumption rose by 1.5%, still accounting for 81.5% of global energy production—though that’s a slight improvement of 0.5% compared to 2022 (Harvey, 2024). In response, countries around the world are beginning to shift their focus to renewable energy sources. Denmark is a leader in this shift, heavily investing in wind power, which by 2019 was generating about 50% of the country’s electricity, clearly demonstrating a shift towards decarbonization (Denmark.dk, n.d.). Germany is also making progress in the field of renewable energy, primarily wind and solar, providing over 45% of its electricity by 2020 (Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, n.d.). These countries are demonstrating a real commitment to transforming the energy sector for a cleaner future.
Transportation is another major source of greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for around 14% of global emissions (Statista, n.d.). Decarbonizing transportation means transitioning to electric vehicles (EVs), improving fuel efficiency, and boosting public transport options. Norway has made great progress in this area, with EVs making up more than half (54%) of all new car sales in 2020, thanks to strong government support and a well-developed charging network (Viner, 2021). California has followed suit, introducing stricter fuel efficiency standards and offering incentives for EVs to help cut down on transportation emissions.
Industries, especially in sectors like cement, steel, and chemicals, are also major CO2 emitters. Tackling emissions in these areas involves innovations like carbon capture and storage (CCS) and new low-carbon production techniques. Norway’s Sleipner Project, for example, has been capturing and storing 1 million tons of CO2 annually since 1996, marking a significant achievement in CCS technology (Dickson, 2024). The steel industry is also looking at hydrogen as a cleaner alternative to coal for steel production. Sweden’s HYBRIT project, which aims to produce fossil-free steel using hydrogen, already has a pilot plant running since 2020 (HYBRIT Development, n.d.).
Agriculture, often overlooked in decarbonization discussions, also holds significant potential for emissions reductions. Practices like precision farming, which optimizes the use of fertilizers and water, and agroforestry, which integrates trees into farming systems, can help lower emissions. The Rodale Institute’s research suggests that regenerative agricultural practices, which focus on soil health and carbon sequestration, have the potential to offset significant amounts of CO2 emissions, making agriculture a part of the climate solution (Rodale Institute, 2020).
As previously stated, numerous initiatives aimed at reducing emissions focus on the energy industry and making the transition to renewable energy a pressing matter. Wind, solar and hydroelectric power are abundant and have minimal environmental impact. For example, renewables could make up as much as 80% of global electricity generation by 2050, drastically reducing our reliance on fossil fuels (Kammen, 2011). To reach this goal, policies that encourage the development and integration of renewable technologies are crucial.
Solar energy, in particular, is a vital part of the decarbonization strategy. The rapid decline in the cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has made solar one of the most affordable sources of new electricity generation. Between 1976 and 2016, the cost of solar PV modules dropped by about 99%, thanks to technological improvements and economies of scale (Nemet et al., 2018). This dramatic reduction has made solar power more accessible, with countries like Italy and Spain generating nearly 10% of their electricity from solar by 2020 (IRENA, 2020).
Energy efficiency improvements are also important for reducing GHG emissions. Enhancing energy efficiency can be achieved through various measures, such as improving insulation in buildings, upgrading to energy-efficient appliances, and optimizing industrial processes. According to the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), energy efficiency measures have the potential to reduce U.S. energy consumption by 50% by 2050, resulting in significant emissions reductions (Ungar & Nadel, 2019). The adoption of LED lighting, for instance, is a straightforward yet impactful efficiency measure. LED bulbs use about 75% less energy and last 25 times longer than incandescent lighting, leading to substantial energy savings and emissions reductions (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.).
Improving energy efficiency across various sectors, including industrial, transportation, and residential, is crucial for reducing energy consumption and GHG emissions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that energy efficiency measures could contribute to nearly half of the emission reductions needed to meet international climate goals (Fischer, 2021). This includes adopting energy-efficient technologies, enhancing building insulation and promoting public transportation and electric vehicles.
3 Understanding Circular Economy
The concept of the circular economy (CE) has evolved from being a niche concern to a cornerstone of global sustainability efforts. Defined by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation as an industrial system that is restorative or regenerative by design, the circular economy seeks to decouple economic growth from resource consumption by keeping products, components, and materials in use for as long as possible (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019). This system stands in contrast to the traditional linear economy, which is based on the ‘take-make-dispose’ model of production.
The origins of circular economy thinking can be traced back to the mid-twentieth century when economists and environmentalists first raised concerns about the limitations of unchecked industrial growth. Kenneth Boulding’s seminal work, ‘The Economics of the Coming Spaceship Earth’ (1966), marked a pivotal moment in environmental economics. Boulding emphasized the need for a shift from a ‘cowboy economy’ with infinite resource consumption to a ‘spaceship economy’ that operates within the Earth’s finite ecological boundaries (Boulding & Jarrett, 1966). This insight laid the groundwork for later developments in ecological economics and circularity principles.
Building upon Boulding’s ideas, the late 1980s saw the emergence of industrial ecology as a foundational discipline for circular economy thought. Frosch and Gallopoulos introduced the notion of ‘industrial ecosystems’ in their influential article ‘Strategies for Manufacturing’ (Frosch & Gallopoulos, 1989). They argued that industries should mimic natural ecosystems, where the waste from one process becomes the input for another, thereby creating a closed-loop system (Frosch & Gallopoulos, 1989). This industrial symbiosis concept has since been applied to numerous sectors, including manufacturing, energy production, and waste management, emphasizing the potential for systems-level transformation. This idea of industrial symbiosis was later implemented successfully in the Kalundborg Eco-Industrial Park in Denmark, serving as a real-world example of circular economy principles in action (Chertow, 2000).
Walter R. Stahel, a swiss architect and industrial analyst, is another key figure in the development of circular economy concepts. In the 1970s, Stahel proposed the notion of a ‘loop economy’ or ‘cradle-to-cradle’ design, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the value of products, materials, and resources in the economy for as long as possible. Stahel’s work focused on extending the life cycle of products through strategies such as reuse, repair, remanufacturing and recycling. Stahel’s influential work ‘The Performance Economy’ further elaborates on these ideas, arguing for a shift from a product-based economy to a performance-based economy where companies retain ownership of products and sell their usage as a service (Stahel, 2006).
Pearce and Turner (1990) further developed these ideas by highlighting the importance of viewing the economy as a subset of the environment and stressing the need for sustainable economic development. In their book ‘Economics of Natural Resources and the Environment’ (1990), Pearce and Turner discussed the limitations of traditional economic models that fail to account for environmental degradation (Pearce & Turner, 1990). They introduced the concept of ‘natural capital’ and argued for the need to incorporate environmental costs into economic decision-making. Pearce and Turner’s work is critical in emphasizing that sustainable economic development cannot be achieved without recognizing the value of environmental resources.
Stahel’s ideas have been built upon by McDonough and Braungart (2002) in their book ‘Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things’. They argue for a design philosophy where products are created with the intention of being reused or composted, drawing a distinction between biological and technical nutrient cycles (McDonough & Braungart, 2002). This work highlights the importance of considering a product’s entire life cycle and has influenced industries ranging from fashion to construction.
The transition towards a circular economy gained significant momentum in the early twenty-first century, driven by growing environmental concerns and resource constraints. The Ellen MacArthur Foundation, established in 2010, has been at the forefront of promoting the circular economy globally (Ellen MacArthur Foundation, n.d.). The foundation’s report ‘Towards the Circular Economy’ provided a comprehensive framework for understanding and implementing circular economy principles in various sectors.
While the circular economy has gained theoretical traction, its implementation has been uneven. Kirchherr et al. identified 114 definitions of the circular economy, emphasizing its diverse interpretations and highlighting inconsistencies in implementation (Kirchherr et al., 2017). The lack of a standardized definition creates challenges for policymakers and industries aiming to adopt circular economy strategies. These challenges are compounded by the fragmented regulatory frameworks that govern resource management across nations and industries (Korhonen et al., 2018).
Despite various definitions and approaches, the circular economy (CE) is generally understood to rest on three core principles: design out waste and pollution, keep products and materials in use, regenerate natural systems. These principles are essential for moving from the linear ‘take-make-dispose’ model to a more sustainable system that prioritizes long-term resource efficiency.
The first principle, designing out waste and pollution, focuses on eliminating waste at its source by addressing potential environmental impacts in the product design phase. Instead of creating products destined for disposal, companies are encouraged to develop goods that can be reused, recycled or decomposed naturally. This involves using materials that are not only durable and recyclable but also non-toxic, ensuring that they can re-enter natural or technical cycles. For example, Apple’s ‘Daisy’ robot disassembles iPhones, recovering valuable rare materials like cobalt, which can be reused in new products, reducing the demand for virgin resources (Sedin, 2022).
The second principle of the circular economy, keeping products and materials in use, emphasizes the importance of extending the life cycle of products through strategies such as reuse, repair, remanufacturing, and recycling. The goal is to ensure that products and materials are used for as long as possible before being recycled or repurposed. By promoting the reuse of items, companies can reduce the need for new raw materials, thereby minimizing resource depletion and waste generation. A notable example is Patagonia’s ‘Worn Wear’ program, which encourages customers to repair or trade in used garments rather than purchasing new ones (Patagonia, n.d.). This initiative prolongs the life of Patagonia’s products while reducing environmental impact. The sharing economy, exemplified by services like Zipcar, further promotes resource efficiency by allowing multiple users to access a single product, thereby reducing the need for additional production (Zipcar, n.d.).
The third principle, regenerating natural systems, is centered on restoring and enhancing ecosystems through responsible management of biological materials. Unlike technical cycles that focus on reuse and recycling, biological cycles emphasize the return of nutrients to the earth through biodegradable materials that safely decompose at the end of their life. This principle encourages the design of products using organic materials that can break down naturally, enriching the soil and supporting agricultural and ecological health. In agriculture, regenerative farming practices focus on improving soil health, enhancing biodiversity and increasing resilience to climate change. Farmers like Gabe Brown in North Dakota have pioneered these techniques, using methods such as no-till farming and cover crops to restore soil fertility and increase biodiversity (California State University Chico, n.d.). Additionally, biodegradable packaging made from organic materials like mycelium (mushroom roots), developed by companies like Ecovative Design, offers an alternative to traditional plastic packaging (Ecovative, n.d.). These materials naturally decompose and return nutrients to the soil, preventing pollution and supporting the regeneration of natural ecosystems.
By implementing these three principles—designing out waste and pollution, keeping products and materials in use, and regenerating natural systems—the circular economy provides a sustainable framework for reducing environmental impact while fostering innovation and economic growth. The transition to a circular model requires the collaboration of industries, governments, and consumers, but it holds the potential to significantly reduce waste, lower resource consumption, and regenerate the planet’s ecosystems.
Geissdoerfer et al. also contributed to the academic discourse by defining the circular economy as a new sustainability paradigm that integrates economic, environmental, and social dimensions (Geissdoerfer et al., 2017). This broader perspective is essential for addressing the complexities of global sustainability challenges and underscores the need for systemic change in consumption patterns, business models, and regulatory practices.
In recent years, the circular economy has gained substantial traction globally, with numerous countries and organizations adopting CE principles as part of their sustainability strategies. According to Circularity Gap Report 2023, the global economy is only 7.2% circular, meaning that a mere fraction of the materials we use are cycled back into the economy (Fraser et al., 2023). Despite the emergence of new technologies for recycling and reuse of materials, the share of the circular economy has only been falling over the years. For comparison, in 2018, the global economy was 9.1% circular, which is almost 2% higher than the current value (Fraser et al., 2023). This figure underscores the vast potential for improvement and the urgent need for widespread adoption of CE practices.
Today, it is extremely important to focus on the transition from a traditional linear economy to a closed-loop economy, as this may lead to various advantages in the long term. According to a study by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment and the consulting firm Roland Berger, the size of the global circular economy market reached €148 billion in 2020 and the market is expected to grow to €263 billion by 2030 (+78%) (Roland Berger, 2021). This market growth is expected to stem from increased demand for sustainable products and services, particularly in the automotive, electronics, and textile industries (Veleva & Bodkin, 2018).
Accenture estimates that the closed-loop economy will bring in $4.5 trillion to the economy through cost savings, job creation and new market opportunities by 2030 (Accenture, 2015). In the future, this figure could grow to $25 trillion by 2050. Moreover, forecasts from the World Economic Forum that these practices could unleash annual untapped resource savings of $1 trillion by 2025 and reach $2 trillion by 2050 (Ekins & Hughes, 2017).
The circular economy represents a significant paradigm shift with the potential to address pressing global sustainability challenges. However, its implementation requires overcoming significant barriers, including technological limitations, policy fragmentation, and behavioral change. The theoretical foundations laid by early pioneers, along with ongoing academic research, provide a solid framework for transitioning to a circular economy. Future research must focus on developing standardized definitions and metrics, integrating CE practices with global sustainability goals, and exploring how technological innovation can overcome existing barriers.
4 Cotrastng with Linear Economy Models
Historical Overview.
The linear economy, a conventional economic model, is built on a simple concept: ‘take, make, dispose.’ This system has shaped global industries since the Industrial Revolution, driving immense economic growth and technological progress. However, its success has come at a cost—widespread environmental damage and the rapid depletion of natural resources. To comprehend the linear economy’s historical context, definitions, and eventual critique, which has led to the exploration of alternative models such as the circular economy, is essential in the transition towards more sustainable economic systems.
The linear economic model can be traced back to the initial stages of the industrial revolution in the late eighteenth century. At that time, economic activities were primarily driven by the exploitation of seemingly abundant natural resources. The goal was to maximize production and consumption to fuel economic expansion. This approach assumed that resources were infinite and that economic growth would inevitably lead to societal progress.
For example, the coal industry, for instance, exemplified the linear economic model during the industrial revolution. Coal was extensively mined and used as the primary energy source to power factories, trains and ships. By the mid-nineteenth century, global coal production had reached approximately 460 Mtoe annually, with Britain and USA contributing a significant portion of this output (The Shift Data Portal, 2024). This boom in coal extraction and usage contributed significantly to economic growth but also led to environmental issues such as deforestation and air pollution, particularly in industrial cities like Manchester and London.
Global statistics from the period highlight the scale of resource extraction and consumption. For instance, by 1910, global iron production had increased significantly, reaching approximately 75 million tons (Sverdrup & Ragnarsdottir, 2014).
Oil extraction and consumption provide another example of the linear economy’s impact on a global scale. The first commercial oil well was drilled in Pennsylvania, USA, in 1859. By 1900, global oil production had risen to about 235 TWh, predominantly driven by the growing demand for fuel in the industrial and transportation sectors (Our World in Data, 2024). In 2023 total world oil production averaged 52,432 TWh (Our World in Data, 2024). This rapid increase in oil extraction led to the establishment of major oil companies and significantly shaped the global economy.
In the twentieth century, the linear economy model continued to drive resource consumption and waste generation. For example, global steel production surged from 28 Mt in 1900 (Price et al., 1999) to 1888.2 Mt in 2023 (Forder, 2024), reflecting the massive industrial and construction activities worldwide. Similarly, global cement production, a key indicator of construction activity, increased from 133 million tons in 1950 to 4.1 billion tons in 2023 (Statista, 2025b). According to the World Cement Association, global cement production is expected to reach 8.2 billion tonnes by 2030 (Tkachenko et al., 2023).
The post-World War II era marked a significant expansion of the linear economy. The reconstruction of war-torn nations and the rise of consumer culture in the 1950s and 1960s accelerated the extraction of raw materials and the production of consumer goods. Economic policies and business practices were geared towards increased production efficiency, often at the expense of environmental considerations.
By the late twentieth century, the limitations of the linear economy became increasingly apparent. Environmental degradation, pollution, and resource depletion reached critical levels. Reports from organizations like the United Nations and the World Bank highlighted the unsustainable nature of linear economic practices. The 1960s and 1970s saw the rise of environmental movements that began to challenge the assumptions of the linear economy. Influential works like Rachel Carson’s ‘Silent Spring’ brought widespread attention to the environmental impacts of industrial activities (Carson, 1962). The first Earth Day in 1970 marked a significant shift in public awareness about environmental issues. Governments and international bodies began to respond to the growing environmental crisis. Key milestones include the United Nations Conference on the Human Environment (1972), also known as the Stockholm Conference, which was one of the first major international gatherings to address environmental issues (UN, n.d.). The Brundtland Report (1987), formally known as ‘Our Common Future,’ introduced the concept of sustainable development.
Current Situation.
Despite the fact that in the middle of the twentieth century, people began to think about the limited resources and the importance of changing the economic model for further sustainable development, resource consumption increased. For instance, global material extraction has increased from approximately 27 billion tons in 1970 to 92 billion tons in 2017 (UNEP, 2019). In 2020, global material extraction reached approximately 100 billion tons (Carrington, 2020). This exponential growth underscores the pressure on natural resources. Waste generation has paralleled resource consumption. According to the World Bank, global municipal solid waste is expected to increase from 2.01 billion tonnes in 2016 to 3.4 billion tonnes by 2050 (Kaza et al., 2018). The disposal of such vast quantities of waste poses significant environmental and health challenges.
In 2022, the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2), the most significant greenhouse gas (GHG), surpassed pre-industrial levels by an unprecedented 50% (WMO, 2023), reaching 421 parts per million (Stein, 2022). This milestone underscores the rapid escalation of atmospheric CO2. If current trends persist without intervention, projections indicate that global CO2 concentrations could soar to 550 parts per million by 2050 (The World Counts, n.d.). Such an increase would have profound implications for global climate patterns, exacerbating the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, accelerating polar ice melt and contributing to rising sea levels. The urgency for effective mitigation strategies has never been more critical, as the window for preventing catastrophic climate outcomes continues to narrow. The primary consequence of increased GHG emissions is global warming. The Earth’s average surface temperature has already risen by approximately 1.1 ℃ since the late nineteenth century (NASA Earth Observatory, n.d.), with most of the warming occurring in the past 35 years. This temperature rise contributes to more frequent and severe heatwaves. For example, in 2021, heatwaves in North America and Europe broke numerous temperature records, exacerbating health issues and increasing mortality rates. June 2024 was Earth’s hottest on record, topping the mark just set in 2023 and extending the stretch of record-hot months to over a year (Dolce, 2024).
Rising global temperatures lead to the melting of polar ice caps and glaciers, contributing to sea level rise. Between 1993 and 2018, the global sea level rose by about 3.3 mm per year (EEA, 2025), and this rate is accelerating (Figs. 4 and 5).
Source authors based on https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics.html
Source authors based on https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/sea-level
By 2100, sea levels could rise by up to 1.3–1.6 m, displacing millions of people living in coastal areas and causing significant economic damage (WCRP, 2022).
Higher temperatures also lead to more intense and frequent extreme weather events. Hurricanes, typhoons, and heavy rainfall events have become more powerful and destructive. For instance, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 caused unprecedented flooding in Houston, Texas, with damages exceeding $125 billion (NHC, 2018). Similarly, the frequency of severe droughts has increased, impacting agriculture and water supply in regions like the Western United States and Sub-Saharan Africa.
GHG emissions often accompany other pollutants like nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM). These pollutants contribute to poor air quality, causing respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), outdoor air pollution causes around 4.2 million premature deaths annually (WHO, 2024).
Approximately 30% of anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed by the world’s oceans, leading to ocean acidification (Shadwick et al., 2023). This process decreases the pH of seawater, harming marine life, particularly organisms with calcium carbonate shells and skeletons, such as corals and shellfish. The Great Barrier Reef, for example, has experienced significant coral bleaching events due to rising sea temperatures and acidification, threatening biodiversity and the livelihoods dependent on these ecosystems. Forests act as significant carbon sinks, absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere. However, deforestation for agriculture, logging, and urbanization releases stored carbon, exacerbating GHG emissions. Between 2015 and 2020, the world lost approximately 10 million hectares of forest each year, contributing to the rise in atmospheric CO2 levels (LSE, 2023).
Habitat destruction, climate change and pollution are driving a rapid decline in biodiversity. The current rate of species extinction is estimated to be 1000 times higher than the natural background rate (De Vos et al., 2015). The loss of biodiversity undermines ecosystem services that are crucial for human survival, such as pollination of crops, water purification, and disease regulation.
The accelerating emissions of greenhouse gases are driving a cascade of environmental issues, from global warming and sea level rise to increased frequency of extreme weather events. These changes have profound impacts on human health, biodiversity, and the global economy. Mitigating these effects requires urgent and comprehensive actions to reduce GHG emissions, protect natural ecosystems, and transition to sustainable practices. Without significant intervention, the continued rise in CO2 and other greenhouse gases will lead to increasingly severe and potentially irreversible damage to the planet.
If we continue to adhere to the linear economic model, it could lead to irreversible consequences. The ongoing exploitation of resources, coupled with escalating waste and emissions, will exacerbate climate change, deplete natural resources, and further degrade ecosystems. This trajectory threatens the health, livelihoods, and well-being of current and future generations. Therefore, green transition is not an option but a necessity. It is imperative to embrace sustainable practices that reduce waste, enhance resource efficiency and mitigate environmental impact to ensure a viable future for our planet.
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