A Stochastic Model for Order Book Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Cont, Rama; Stoikov, Sasha; Talreja, Rishi
• 署名单位: Columbia University
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.1090.0780
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 549-563
• 关键词: continuous double auction; MARKETS

摘要

We propose a continuous-time stochastic model for the dynamics of a limit order book. The model strikes a balance between three desirable features: it can be estimated easily from data, it captures key empirical properties of order book dynamics, and its analytical tractability allows for fast computation of various quantities of interest without resorting to. simulation. We describe a simple parameter estimation procedure based on high-frequency observations of the order book and illustrate the results on data from the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Using simple matrix computations and Laplace transform methods, we are able to efficiently compute probabilities of various events, conditional on the state of the order book: an increase in the midprice, execution of an order at the bid before the ask quote moves, and execution of both a buy and a sell order at the best quotes before the price moves. Using high-frequency data, we show that our model can effectively capture the short-term dynamics of a limit order book. We also evaluate the performance of a simple trading strategy based on our results.