Modeling Passenger Travel and Delays in the National Air Transportation System

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Barnhart, Cynthia; Fearing, Douglas; Vaze, Vikrant
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Dartmouth College
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.2014.1268
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 580-601
• 关键词: itinerary shares; AIRLINE; CHOICE

摘要

Many of the existing methods for evaluating an airline's on-time performance are based on flight-centric measures of delay. However, recent research has demonstrated that passenger delays depend on many factors in addition to flight delays. For instance, significant passenger delays result from flight cancellations and missed connections, which themselves depend on a significant number of factors. Unfortunately, lack of publicly available passenger travel data has made it difficult for researchers to explore the nature of these relationships. In this paper, we develop methodologies to model historical travel and delays for U. S. domestic passengers. We develop a multinomial logit model for estimating historical passenger travel and extend a previously developed greedy reaccommodation heuristic for estimating the resulting passenger delays. We report and analyze the estimated passenger delays for calendar year 2007, developing insights into factors that affect the performance of the National Air Transportation System in the United States.