A Tailor-Made Test of Intransitive Choice

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baillon, Aurelien; Bleichrodt, Han; Cillo, Alessandra
• 署名单位: Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; Bocconi University; Bocconi University
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.2014.1329
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 198-211
• 关键词: probability weighting function; parameter-free elicitation; prospect-theory; decision-making; regret theory; similarity judgments; TASK COMPLEXITY; rational choice; trade-offs; uncertainty

摘要

This paper reports a new test of intransitive choice using individual measurements of regret-and similarity-based intransitive models of choice under uncertainty. Our test is tailor-made and uses subject-specific stimuli. Despite these features, we observed only a few intransitivities. A possible explanation for the poor predictive performance of intransitive choice models is that they only allow for interactions between acts. They exclude within-act interactions by retaining the assumption that preferences are separable over states of nature. Prospect theory, which relaxes separability but retains transitivity, predicted choices better. Our data suggest that descriptively realistic models must allow for within-act interactions but may retain transitivity.