Optimal Dynamic Product Development and Launch for a Network of Customers

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Sunar, Nur; Birge, John R.; Vitavasiri, Sinit
• 署名单位: University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of Chicago; Ericsson
• 刊物名称: OPERATIONS RESEARCH
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0030-364X
• DOI: 10.1287/opre.2018.1802
• 发表日期: 2019
• 页码: 770-790
• 关键词: time-to-market; technology adoption; diffusion; management; INNOVATION; decisions

摘要

We consider a firm that dynamically chooses its effort to develop a product for a network of customers represented by a connected graph. The technology of the product evolves as a real-valued stochastic process that depends on the firm's dynamic efforts over time. In addition to dynamically choosing its development effort, the firm chooses when to launch or abandon the product. If the firm launches the product, the firm also chooses a selling price, a promotional price, and a target customer to offer the promotion to. Once the target customer adopts the product, the product diffuses over the customer network based on the topology of the graph and the selling price. The product provides local network benefits to its adopters. The expected local network benefit of adoption is proportional to the number of neighbor customers that have already adopted the product. In a continuous-time setting, we explicitly solve the firm's jointly optimal development, launch, and post-launch strategies for any connected network. We introduce metrics that allow ordering customer networks with respect to the firm's optimal expected discounted profit, launch technology, and consumer surplus. We also analyze various extensions, including multiple target customers, heterogeneity in customer demand, and heterogeneity in benefit distributions.