Manipulation and (Mis)trust in Prediction Markets

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i
• 署名单位: Southwestern University of Finance & Economics - China; University of Exeter; University of Haifa; Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4213
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 6716-6732
• 关键词: prediction markets; POLICY; Managerial decision making; experiment

摘要

Markets are increasingly used as information aggregation mechanisms to predict future events. If policymakers and managers use markets to guide policy and managerial decisions, interested parties may attempt to manipulate the market in order to influence decisions. We study experimentally the willingness of managers to base decisions on market information under the shadow of manipulation. We find that when there are manipulators in the market, managers under-utilize the information revealed in prices. Furthermore, mere suspicion of manipulation erodes trust in the market, leading to the implementation of suboptimal policies-even without actual manipulation.