Search and Predictability of Prices in the Housing Market

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Moller, Stig Vinther; Pedersen, Thomas; Schutte, Erik Christian Montes; Timmermann, Allan
• 署名单位: Aarhus University; Danish Finance Institute; University of California System; University of California San Diego; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.4672
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: internet search; Housing markets; Housing demand; forecasting; frictions; inelastic housing supply

摘要

We develop a new housing search index (HSI) extracted from online search activity on a limited set of keywords related to the house-buying process. We show that HSI has strong predictive power over subsequent changes in house prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample and after controlling for the effect of commonly used predictors, and relate our findings to models of search-induced frictions. Our results imply that search data can be used as an early indicator of where the market is going.