Discrimination and Economic Expectations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bazley, William; Bonaparte, Yosef; Korniotis, George; Kumar, Alok
• 署名单位: University of Kansas; University of Colorado System; University of Colorado Denver
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• 发表日期: 2024
• 页码: 4115-4131
• 关键词: economic expectations; DISCRIMINATION; racial; Ethnic minorities; inflation uncertainty; income uncertainty

摘要

This paper examines whether perceptions of discrimination affect the economic expectations of U.S. households. We focus on two forms of expectations that play a central role in economic and financial decisions of households: labor income and inflation. Using experimental data, we demonstrate that discrimination generates greater dispersion in household forecasts. It increases subjective expectations of income uncertainty by 8% and inflation uncertainty by 5%. The impact of discrimination is concentrated among racial/ethnic minorities, inducing 12%-16% greater variation in their income uncertainty expectations and 10%-12% greater variation in their inflation uncertainty expectations. Both psychological and emotional factors appear to influence the discrimination-economic expectations relation.