Market Returns and a Tale of Two Types of Attention

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Da, Zhi; Hua, Tian; Hung, Tim Chih-Ching; Peng, Lin
• 署名单位: University of Notre Dame; City University of New York (CUNY) System; Baruch College (CUNY); National Taiwan University; National Taiwan University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.01294
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Return predictability; institutional attention; retail attention; Macroeconomic announcements; Announcement premium

摘要

We provide novel evidence that aggregate investor attention to stocks predicts marketwide returns, but with a striking difference across investor clienteles. Daily aggregate retail attention (ARA) negatively predicts one-week-ahead market returns, is associated with aggregate retail order imbalance and flows to equity mutual funds, and exhibits a stronger predictability during periods of high marketwide uncertainty, poor liquidity, or more costly short selling. In contrast, aggregate institutional attention (AIA), when observed before major news announcements, positively predict future marketwide returns. In cross-sectional analysis, we show that the predictability is stronger for ARA among illiquid stocks and for AIA among high-beta stocks. The predictability results are robust out-of-sample and correspond to meaningful expected utility gains even for diversified investors. The findings are consistent with the idea that attention-driven retail buying can generate an aggregate price pressure on the stock market, whereas institutional attention precedes the resolution of marketwide uncertainty and the accrual of risk premiums.