Does Personalized Pricing Increase Competition? Evidence from NIL in College Football

• 成果类型: Article; Early Access
• 署名作者: Li, Ivan; Derdenger, Tim
• 署名单位: University of Texas System; University of Texas Dallas; Carnegie Mellon University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2024.06423
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: college football; merit aid; NIL; Personalized pricing; price discrimination

摘要

We investigate the impact of personalized pricing through Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) rights within college athletics on the recruitment of high school football players by college programs. We focus on whether the new policy disrupts competitive balance by increasing the concentration of talent among top-ranked institutions. Using a data set that encompasses pre- and post-NIL recruitment patterns to examine the distribution of 3, 4, and 5* recruits at college football programs, we find a notable increase in the dispersion of talent. Contrary to the hypothesis that NIL would lead to a rich get richer dynamic, we observe a tendency for lower-ranked football programs to attract higherquality recruits post-NIL, especially among 5- and lower ranked 4* athletes. Furthermore, we show that post-NIL 3* recruits are sacrificing schooling for NIL money and are attending colleges that are less selective and have lower SAT class averages and whose graduates earn a lower midcareer income. We also do not find evidence that schools that spend more money on football are attracting better talent post-NIL. Competitiveness improves postNIL as sportsbooks set smaller point differentials even after controlling for talent, performance, and the transfer portal. Ultimately, this study offers a comprehensive examination of NIL's short-term effects on competitive balance and sets the stage for ongoing research into the long-term consequences of this landmark policy change.