Discovering Causal Models with Optimization: Confounders, Cycles, and Instrument Validity

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eberhardt, Frederick; Kaynar, Nur; Siddiq, Auyon
• 署名单位: California Institute of Technology; Cornell University; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.02066
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: programming: integer; networks-graphs: theory; economics: econometrics; statistics

摘要

We propose a new optimization-based method for learning causal structures from observational data, a process known as causal discovery. Our method takes as input observational data over a set of variables and returns a graph in which causal relations are specified by directed edges. We consider a highly general search space that accommodates latent confounders and feedback cycles, which few extant methods do. We formulate the discovery problem as an integer program, and propose a solution technique that exploits the conditional independence structure in the data to identify promising edges for inclusion in the output graph. In the large-sample limit, our method recovers a graph that is (Markov) equivalent to the true data-generating graph. Computationally, our method is competitive with the state-ofthe-art, and can solve in minutes instances that are intractable for alternative causal discovery methods. We leverage our method to develop a procedure for investigating the validity of an instrumental variable and demonstrate it on the influential quarter-of-birth and proximity-tocollege instruments for estimating the returns to education. In particular, our procedure complements existing instrument tests by revealing the precise causal pathways that undermine instrument validity, highlighting the unique merits of the graphical perspective on causality.