How Should Time Estimates Be Structured to Increase Customer Satisfaction?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hu, Beidi; Gaertig, Celia; Dietvorst, Berkeley J.
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.00137
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: uncertainty; time estimates; Time perception; numerical cognition

摘要

Businesses across industries, such as food delivery apps and GPS navigation systems, routinely provide customers with time estimates in inherently uncertain contexts. How does the format of these time estimates affect customers' satisfaction? In particular, should companies provide customers with a point estimate representing the best estimate, or should they communicate the inherent uncertainty in outcomes by providing a range estimate? In eight preregistered experiments (N = 5,323), participants observed time estimates provided by an app, and we manipulated whether the app presented the time estimates as a point estimate (e.g., Your food will arrive in 45 minutes.) or a range (e.g., Your food will arrive in 40-50 minutes.). After participants learned about the app's prediction performance by sampling a set of past outcomes, we measured participants' evaluation of the app. We find that participants judged the app more positively when it provided a range rather than a point estimate. These results held across different domains, different time durations, different underlying outcome distributions, and an incentivecompatible design. We also find that this preference is not simply due to people's dislike of late outcomes, as participants also rated ranges more positively than conservative point estimates corresponding to the upper (i.e., later) bound of the range. These findings suggest that companies can increase customer satisfaction with realized time estimates by communicating the uncertainty inherent in these time estimates.