A belief-based account of decision under uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Fox, CR; Tversky, A
• 署名单位: Duke University; Stanford University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.44.7.879
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 879-895
• 关键词: decision making; RISK; uncertainty; expected utility; prospect theory; support theory; decision weights; JUDGMENT; probability

摘要

We develop a belief-based account of decision under uncertainty. This model predicts decisions under uncertainty from (i)judgments of probability, which are assumed to satisfy support theory; and (ii) decisions under risk, which are assumed to satisfy prospect theory. In two experiments, subjects evaluated uncertain prospects and assessed the probability of the respective events. Study I involved the 1995 professional basketball playoffs; Study 2 involved the movement of economic indicators in a simulated economy. The results of both studies are consistent with the belief-based account, but violate the partition inequality implied by the classical theory of decision under uncertainty.