Long-run abstinence after narcotics abuse: What are the odds?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Dekimpe, MG; Van de Gucht, LM; Hanssens, DM; Powers, KI
• 署名单位: Universite Catholique Louvain; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.44.11.1478
• 发表日期: 1998
• 页码: 1478-1492
• 关键词: hazard modeling; survival analysis; narcotics abuse; methadone treatment; public policy

摘要

We consider the long-run odds that narcotics users remain abstinent after methadone treatment. A flexible split-hazard specification that allows for individual-level differences in both the long-run probability of eventual relapse and the short-run timing of relapse is developed. The model is applied to a comprehensive data set involving individual drug abuse and treatment histories for over 800 addicts. Our findings indicate (1) that the short-run success of methadone programs does not automatically translate into long-run abstinence, which suggests the need for aftercare, (2) the value of preventing a teenager or young adult from initiating, and (3) the possibility of identifying high-risk groups, both in terms of age of first daily use and in terms of ethnicity.