On uncertainty, ambiguity, and complexity in project management

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Pich, MT; Loch, CH; De Meyer, A
• 署名单位: INSEAD Business School; INSEAD Business School
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.48.8.1008.163
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 1008-1023
• 关键词: project management; uncertainty; complexity; instructionalism; project selection; ambiguity

摘要

This article develops a model of a project as a payoff function that depends on the state of the world and the choice of a sequence of actions. A causal mapping, which may be incompletely known by the project team, represents the impact of possible actions on the states of the world. An underlying probability space represents available information about the state of the world. Interactions among actions and states of the world determine the complexity of the payoff function. Activities are endogenous, in that they are the result of a policy that maximizes the expected project payoff. A key concept is the adequacy of the available information about states of the world and action effects. We express uncertainty, ambiguity and complexity in terms of information adequacy. We identify three fundamental project management strategies: instructionism, learning, and selectionism. We show that classic project management methods emphasize adequate information and instructionism, and demonstrate how modern methods fit into the three fundamental strategies. The appropriate strategy is contingent on the type of uncertainty present and the complexity of the project payoff function. Our model establishes a rigorous language that allows the project manager to judge the adequacy of the available project information at the outset, choose an appropriate combination of strategies, and set a supporting project infrastructure-that is, systems for planning, coordination and incentives, and monitoring.