The market evolution and sales takeoff of product innovations

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Agarwal, R; Bayus, BL
• 署名单位: University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.48.8.1024.167
• 发表日期: 2002
• 页码: 1024-1041
• 关键词: new product development; Firm entry; entrepreneurship

摘要

In contrast to the prevailing supply-side explanation that price decreases are the key driver of a sales takeoff, we argue that outward shifting supply and demand curves lead to market takeoff. Our fundamental idea is that sales in new markets are initially low because the first commercialized forms of new innovations are primitive. Then, as new firms enter, actual and perceived product quality improves (and prices possibly drop), which leads to a takeoff in sales. To provide empirical evidence for this explanation, we explore the relationship between takeoff times, price decreases, and firm entry for a sample of consumer and industrial product innovations commercialized in the United States over the past 150 years. Based on a proportional hazards analysis of takeoff times, we find that new firm entry dominates other factors in explaining observed sales takeoff times. We interpret these results as supporting the idea that demand shifts during the early evolution of a new market due to nonprice factors is the key driver of a sales takeoff.