Modeling and analysis of call center arrival data: A Bayesian approach

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Soyer, Refik; Tarimcilar, M. Murat
• 署名单位: George Washington University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1070.0776
• 发表日期: 2008
• 页码: 266-278
• 关键词: call center; advertising strategy; modulated Poisson process; Bayesian analysis; Heterogeneity

摘要

In this paper, we present a modulated Poisson process model to describe and analyze arrival data to a call center. The attractive feature of this model is that it takes into account both covariate and time effects on the call volume intensity, and in so doing, enables us to assess the effectiveness of different advertising strategies along with predicting the arrival patterns. A Bayesian analysis of the model is developed and an extension of the model is presented to describe potential heterogeneity in arrival patterns. The proposed model and the methodology are implemented using real call center arrival data.