Volume and Price Patterns Around a Stock's 52-Week Highs and Lows: Theory and Evidence

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Huddart, Steven; Lang, Mark; Yetman, Michelle H.
• 署名单位: Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park; University of North Carolina; University of North Carolina Chapel Hill; University of California System; University of California Davis
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0920
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 16-31
• 关键词: decision analysis; prospect theory; value function; Reference point; behavioral finance; attention

摘要

We provide large sample evidence that past price extremes influence investors' trading decisions. Volume is strikingly higher, in both economic and statistical terms, when the stock price crosses either the upper or lower limit of its past trading range. This increase in volume is more pronounced the longer the time since the stock price last achieved the price extreme, the smaller the firm, the higher the individual investor interest in the stock, and the greater the ambiguity regarding valuation. These results are robust across model specifications and controls for past returns and news arrival. Volume spikes when price crosses either the upper or lower limit of the past trading range, then gradually subsides. After either event, returns are reliably positive and, among small investors, trades classified as buyer-initiated are elevated. Overall, results are more consistent with bounded rationality than with other candidate explanations.