Poker Player Behavior After Big Wins and Big Losses

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Smith, Gary; Levere, Michael; Kurtzman, Robert
• 署名单位: Claremont Colleges; Pomona College
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1090.1044
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 1547-1555
• 关键词: Prospect theory; break-even hypothesis; RISK; INVESTMENT

摘要

We find that experienced poker players typically change their style of play after winning or losing a big pot-most notably, playing less cautiously after a big loss, evidently hoping for lucky cards that will erase their loss. This finding is consistent with Kahneman and Tversky's (Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica 47(2) 263-292) break-even hypothesis and suggests that when investors incur a large loss, it might be time to take a vacation or be monitored closely.