Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments: New Evidence from Randomized Natural Experiments

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kocher, Martin G.; Lenz, Marc V.; Sutter, Matthias
• 署名单位: University of Munich; University of Gothenburg; University of Innsbruck
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1120.1516
• 发表日期: 2012
• 页码: 1585-1591
• 关键词: Tournament; first-mover advantage; Psychological pressure; field experiment; soccer; Penalty shootouts

摘要

Dynamic competitive settings may create psychological pressure when feedback about the performance of competitors is provided before the end of the competition. Such psychological pressure could produce a first-mover advantage, despite a priori equal winning probabilities. Using data from a randomized natural experiment-penalty shootouts in soccer-we reexamine evidence by Apesteguia and Palacios-Huerta [Apesteguia J, Palacios-Huerta 1 (2010) Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment. Amer. Econom. Rev. 100(5):2548-2564]. They report a 21-percentage-point advantage for first movers over second movers in terms of winning probabilities. Extending their sample of 129 shootouts to 540, we fail to detect any significant first-mover advantage. Our results are fully consistent with recent evidence from other sports contests.