Dynamics of Consumer Adoption of Financial Innovation: The Case of ATM Cards

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Yang, Botao; Ching, Andrew T.
• 署名单位: University of Southern California; University of Toronto
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2013.1792
• 发表日期: 2014
• 页码: 903-922
• 关键词: Financial innovation; adoption costs; ATM cards; cash demand model; consumer life-cycle model; limited time promotional offer; permanent promotional offer; dynamic programming

摘要

We develop a structural consumer life-cycle model to investigate consumers' adoption and usage decisions of ATM cards. If consumers are forward-looking with a known discount factor, our framework can control for the heterogeneous life span faced by consumers of different ages, and hence measure adoption costs more accurately. Moreover, our framework can recover the monetary value of total adoption costs. To estimate our model, we use an Italian panel data set, which contains information on consumers' adoption decisions for ATM cards, and their cash withdrawal patterns before and after adoption. Our results suggest that one could significantly overestimate adoption costs for the elderly when ignoring their shorter life span. Our policy experiments show that a sign-up bonus targeted to the elderly could be much more effective if implemented as a limited-time offer rather than a permanent offer. Interestingly, if the sign-up bonus is permanent, younger consumers may strategically postpone adoption.