Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Lefgren, Lars; Platt, Brennan; Price, Joseph
• 署名单位: Brigham Young University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.1966
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 1121-1136
• 关键词: outcome bias; Hindsight bias; Bayesian updating; strategy revision

摘要

Outcome bias occurs when an evaluator considers ex post outcomes when judging whether a choice was correct ex ante. We formalize this cognitive bias in a simple model of distorted Bayesian updating. We then examine strategy changes made by professional basketball coaches. We find that they are more likely to revise their strategy after a loss than a win-even for narrow losses, which are uninformative about team effectiveness. This increased strategy revision following a loss occurs even when a loss was expected and even when failure is due to factors beyond the team's control. These results are consistent with our model's predictions.