The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brogaard, Jonathan; Detzel, Andrew
• 署名单位: University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2014.2044
• 发表日期: 2015
• 页码: 3-18
• 关键词: finance; asset pricing; political uncertainty; Government policy

摘要

Using the news-based measure of Baker et al. [Baker SR, Bloom N, Davis SJ (2013) Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Working paper, Stanford University, Stanford, CA] to capture economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in the United States, we find that EPU positively forecasts log excess market returns. An increase of one standard deviation in EPU is associated with a 1.5% increase in forecasted three-month abnormal returns (6.1% annualized). Furthermore, innovations in EPU earn a significant negative risk premium in the Fama-French 25 size-momentum portfolios. Among the Fama-French 25 portfolios formed on size and momentum returns, the portfolio with the greatest EPU beta underperforms the portfolio with the lowest EPU beta by 5.53% per annum, controlling for exposure to the Carhart four factors as well as implied and realized volatility. These findings suggest that EPU is an economically important risk factor for equities.