The Rich Domain of Risk

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Armantier, Olivier; Treich, Nicolas
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; INRAE; Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2215
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 1954-1969
• 关键词: decision analysis; RISK; utility preference; theory

摘要

We report on two experiments challenging the common assumption that events with objective probabilities constitute a unique source of uncertainty. We find that, similar to the domain of ambiguity, the domain of risk is rich in the sense that behavior is systematically different when subjects face risky bets based on simple or more complex events. Furthermore, we find a tight association between attitudes toward complex risky bets and attitudes toward both ambiguity and compound lotteries. These results raise questions about the characterization of ambiguity aversion and the modeling of decisions under uncertainty.