Inferring Quality from Wait Time

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kremer, Mirko; Debo, Laurens
• 署名单位: Frankfurt School Finance & Management; Dartmouth College
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2264
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 3023-3038
• 关键词: Queues; quality signals; Observational learning; experiments

摘要

We study the impact of wait time on consumers' purchasing behavior when product quality is unknown to some consumers (the uninformed consumers) but known to others (the informed consumers). In a capacitated environment, wait times act as a signal of quality for uninformed consumers because, due to informed consumers in the population, low (high) quality products tend to generate shorter (longer) wait times. Hence, longer wait times may increase uninformed consumers' perceived quality, and they may still purchase the product, even when the wait time is long. Similarly, short wait times decrease the consumers' perceived quality, and they may walk away despite the short wait-the empty restaurant syndrome. This paper develops and tests a theory of observational learning that predicts these effects. We find that uninformed consumers' purchasing probability at short waits decreases in the presence of informed consumers. Furthermore, we find that relatively few informed consumers suffice to create this effect. Finally, we show that the purchasing frequency might even increase in the wait time.