Multidimensional Ellsberg

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Eliaz, Kfir; Ortoleva, Pietro
• 署名单位: Tel Aviv University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Columbia University
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2240
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 2179-2197
• 关键词: Ellsberg paradox; Uncertainty aversion; multidimensional uncertainty

摘要

The classical Ellsberg experiment presents individuals with a choice problem in which the probability of winning a prize is unknown (uncertain). In this paper, we study how individuals make choices between gambles in which the uncertainty is in different dimensions: the winning probability, the amount of the prize, the payment date, and the combinations thereof. Although the decision-theoretic models accommodate a rich variety of behaviors, we present experimental evidence that points at systematic behavioral patterns: (i) no uncertainty is preferred to uncertainty on any single dimension and to uncertainty on multiple dimensions, and (ii) correlated uncertainty on multiple dimensions is preferred to uncertainty on any single dimension.