Intrinsic Variability in Group and Individual Decision Making

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Melkonyan, Tigran; Safra, Zvi
• 署名单位: University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2255
• 发表日期: 2016
• 页码: 2651-2667
• 关键词: random preferences; weak stochastic transitivity; betweenness

摘要

The paper examines the random preference model, which can explain inherent variability of preferences in managerial and individual decision making and provides axiomatizations for the utility components of two such models differentiated by the structure of core preferences: expected utility (EU) and betweenness-like preferences. We then examine the possibility of violations of weak stochastic transitivity for these models and for a model with core dual EU preferences. Such violations correspond to the existence of Condorcet cycles, and therefore, the analysis has implications for managerial decision making and for majority rule voting. The paper also investigates implications of its findings for two popular experimental settings.