Do Preference Reversals Disappear When We Allow for Probabilistic Choice?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Loomes, Graham; Pogrebna, Ganna
• 署名单位: University of Warwick; University of Warwick
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2333
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 166-184
• 关键词: preference reversal phenomenon; probabilistic preferences; stochastic choice

摘要

The preference reversal phenomenon, a systematic disparity between people's valuations and choices, poses challenges for theory and policy. Using a very general formulation of probabilistic preferences, we show that the phenomenon is not mainly due to intransitive choice. We find a high degree of regularity within choice tasks and also within valuation tasks, but the two types of tasks appear to evoke very different cognitive processes, even when the experimental environment tries to minimise differences. We discuss possible implications for modelling and eliciting preferences.