Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Papakonstantinou, Filippos; Parker, Jonathan A.
• 署名单位: Princeton University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Imperial College London; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
• 刊物名称: MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0025-1909
• DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2015.2360
• 发表日期: 2017
• 页码: 1318-1340
• 关键词: Optimal beliefs; optimism; time-inconsistent beliefs; Time-inconsistent preferences; procrastination; planning fallacy; Preference for commitment

摘要

We develop a structural theory of beliefs and behavior that relaxes the assumption of time consistency in beliefs. Our theory is based on the trade-off between optimism, which raises anticipatory utility, and objectivity, which promotes efficient actions. We present it in the context of allocating work on a project over time, develop testable implications to contrast it with models assuming time-inconsistent preferences, and compare its predictions to existing evidence on behavior and beliefs. Our predictions are that (i) optimal beliefs are optimistic and time inconsistent; (ii) people optimally exhibit the planning fallacy; (iii) incentives for rapid task completion make beliefs more optimistic and worsen work smoothing, whereas incentives for accurate duration prediction make beliefs less optimistic and improve work smoothing; (iv) without a commitment device, beliefs become less optimistic over time; and (v) in the presence of a commitment device, beliefs may become more optimistic over time, and people optimally exhibit preference for commitment.